Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Prices Drop Amid Global Supply Increase
Зміст
- 0.1 Updated Price Levels
- 0.2 Driving Factors for the Decline
- 0.3 Historical Comparison
- 0.4 What This Means for Stakeholders
- 1 🧾 Table 1. Scenario-Based Forecast of Sunflower Oil Prices
- 2 📈 Trends
- 3 ⚙️ Key Risks
- 4 Graph of forecast price dynamics under three scenarios — optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic — for the period from November 2025 to March 2026.
Updated Price Levels
According to monitoring by the information agency АПК‑Інформ, the price of Ukrainian-port-delivered sunflower oil has fallen by roughly US $35 per tonne over less than two weeks.
As of November 5, 2025, the demand price for sunflower oil in Ukrainian ports is predominantly at or below US $1,230/tonne CPT port, which marks a decrease of US $35/tonne compared to prices recorded on November 24 (when they were at the highest in three years).
Driving Factors for the Decline
Several factors are putting downward pressure on prices:
- A notable reduction in the quotations for palm oil is influencing the sunflower oil market.
- Globally, there is an increased supply of vegetable oils—specifically rapeseed and sunflower oils—typical for this phase of the season.
Historical Comparison
To provide context:
- At the beginning of November 2024, the highest demand price for Ukrainian sunflower oil was about US $1,140/tonne CPT port.
- On the same date in 2023, it was approximately US $730/tonne CPT port.
What This Means for Stakeholders
- For producers and exporters, the falling price means lower revenue per tonne, which may squeeze margins if costs remain elevated.
- For buyers and processors, the softer price environment may create opportunities to secure raw material at more favorable rates, though they must remain alert to future supply changes or logistics risks.
- For market analysts, this development illustrates how global vegetable-oil supply dynamics (e.g., palm oil, rapeseed oil) can quickly ripple into regional sunflower-oil markets.
Forecast for the Ukrainian sunflower oil market (November 2025 – March 2026)
🧾 Table 1. Scenario-Based Forecast of Sunflower Oil Prices
| Scenario | Key Assumptions | Price (wholesale, $/t, CPT port) | Price (retail, UAH/L) | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimistic | High sunflower yield in Ukraine, declining palm and rapeseed oil prices, stable logistics | 1 100 – 1 150 | 80 – 90 | 25 % |
| Baseline | Average yield, steady exports, minor global fluctuations | 1 150 – 1 200 | 90 – 100 | 50 % |
| Pessimistic | Drought or yield decline, higher costs and logistics risks, shrinking global stocks | 1 220 – 1 280 | 100 – 110 | 25 % |
📈 Trends
- In December–January, a temporary price dip is expected due to the arrival of most harvest volumes.
- From February–March, prices are projected to rise gradually as stocks shrink seasonally.
- The key influence will come from export activity via Black Sea ports and global palm oil price behavior.
⚙️ Key Risks
- Weather uncertainty in southern Ukraine.
- Exchange-rate volatility affecting local prices.
- Potential logistics delays or restrictions caused by security factors.
- Changes in demand from India, China, and the EU — Ukraine’s main buyers.
Graph of forecast price dynamics under three scenarios — optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic — for the period from November 2025 to March 2026.
