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Processors are heating up the market: why sunflower is getting more expensive and what to expect next

Harvest Nearly Complete — but the Crop Is Lower Than Expected

According to reports, the sunflower harvest in Ukraine is almost complete: 9.04 million tonnes have been collected from 4.8 million hectares (98%).
The forecast volume was about 11 million tonnes, meaning the actual harvest is approximately 2 million tonnes lower than expected.
This means that this season the market — especially processors — has received significantly less raw material.

Overview of prices for sunflower seeds, sunflower oil and meal for November 2025

🌻 Sunflower seeds (raw)

• According to one source, retail / wholesale Ukrainian market prices for sunflower seeds in 2025 range around US $0.85–1.10/kg (≈ UAH 31.07–40.15/kg) in major cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv.
• In tonnage terms, this corresponds to roughly UAH 31,000–40,000 per ton (though actual wholesale offers may be lower depending on quality and delivery).
• Another report notes that processors in November 2025 offered UAH 28,400–29,000 per ton for sunflower seed (delivered to plant / with typical oil content) — i.e. around US $590–600/t without VAT. (AgroNews)

🌻 Why Sunflower Prices in Ukraine Have Risen Sharply: The Impact of the EU and Domestic Trends

Price Surge: What’s Happening

In November, the Ukrainian sunflower market has experienced a significant price increase — export prices for sunflower seeds delivered to processing plants now range between $590–600 per ton (excluding VAT, based on 50% oil content).
The main reasons are harvest delays, shortages of raw materials for processors, and rising demand for sunflower oil.

Brief Report — Sunflower Oil Market Prices (Bulk), Ukraine

In the first half of 2025, sunflower oil quotations in USD/ton were relatively high (peaking at around $1,300–1,340/t early in the year), but by August 2025 prices declined to around $1,130–1,185/t due to seasonal factors and improved crop forecasts. Below is a table with representative monthly values, a price chart, and main data sources.

Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Prices Drop Amid Global Supply Increase

Updated Price Levels

According to monitoring by the information agency АПК‑Інформ, the price of Ukrainian-port-delivered sunflower oil has fallen by roughly US $35 per tonne over less than two weeks.
As of November 5, 2025, the demand price for sunflower oil in Ukrainian ports is predominantly at or below US $1,230/tonne CPT port, which marks a decrease of US $35/tonne compared to prices recorded on November 24 (when they were at the highest in three years).

Driving Factors for the Decline

Several factors are putting downward pressure on prices:

• A notable reduction in the quotations for palm oil is influencing the sunflower oil market.
• Globally, there is an increased supply of vegetable oils—specifically rapeseed and sunflower oils—typical for this phase of the season.

Sunflower Seed Prices Rose by Up to +$5/t Over the Week

Over the past week, purchasing prices for sunflower seeds in Ukraine have increased — the spot index for delivery within 30 days rose by $3/t (including VAT), reaching around $677/t (including VAT) for 8/3/48 quality, CPT Odesa.

According to analysts from Spike Brokers, the final gross harvest of sunflower seeds is expected to reach approximately 10.5 million tons. However, the situation remains quite mixed: despite what seems to be a solid production volume, the highly developed processing industry is already facing a certain raw material deficit.

Meanwhile, sunflower oil prices continue to strengthen, with the spot premium — driven by limited supply — already extending to November deliveries. In particular, prices for October–November delivery toward the ports have risen to $1,255–1,260/t.

Sunflower Market Overview and Farmer Strategies

Harvest Progress Nears Completion

Farmers across Ukraine have already harvested more than half of the sunflower fields — around 3 million hectares, producing over 5.5 million tons of seeds. This is significantly less than last year’s figure at the same time (over 8 million tons).
The decline is mainly due to delayed sowing, local droughts, and reduced yields in certain regions. However, most processing plants are currently well-supplied with raw materials — enough to operate at least until the end of October.

Weekly sunflower trend

Weekly trend for the period from August 28 to September 3

During the period from August 28 to September 3, there was a further decrease in prices on the oil seed market, in particular for sunflower. Precipitation in the central and southern regions is expected to reduce the impact of the heat on crops, so there will potentially be favorable conditions for harvesting soybeans and sunflowers. As of September 3, the average price of traders was UAH 12,704.81/t, which is 4.39% less than last week.