Processors are heating up the market: why sunflower is getting more expensive and what to expect next

Processors are heating up the market: why sunflower is getting more expensive and what to expect next

Harvest Nearly Complete — but the Crop Is Lower Than Expected

According to reports, the sunflower harvest in Ukraine is almost complete: 9.04 million tonnes have been collected from 4.8 million hectares (98%).
The forecast volume was about 11 million tonnes, meaning the actual harvest is approximately 2 million tonnes lower than expected.
This means that this season the market — especially processors — has received significantly less raw material.

Growing Processor Demand Is Pushing Purchase Prices Up

Due to a shortage of seeds and the needs of processing plants, demand for Ukrainian sunflower has intensified.
Over the past week, the “spot index” — the price for delivery to processing within 30 days — increased by $9 including VAT and reached $699 per tonne.
This is a direct signal that plants are ready to pay more to secure raw materials amid limited supply.

The Global Oil Market Supports Ukrainian Prices

On the global market, sunflower oil has also risen in price — in some Northern European ports the price increased by €20 per week to $1,350 per tonne.
This increases the economic attractiveness of Ukrainian raw materials, as processing is becoming more profitable.

Consequences for the Market and Farmers

Processors are forced to compete for the remaining harvest, which creates a foundation for further price growth.

For farmers, this is a chance to obtain a better price for their raw materials, especially if they delayed sales in anticipation of price growth.

At the same time, a shortage of high-quality seeds and increased demand for better-quality raw materials may affect the overall market balance and product availability.

Market Situation: Raw Material Shortage Becomes the Decisive Factor

The Ukrainian sunflower market is entering a phase of fierce competition among processors. Harvest volumes turned out to be lower than expected, while the needs of oil-processing plants remain high.
Analysts at Spike Brokers note that the shortage of high-quality raw materials has become the key driver of purchasing price growth.

In practice, this means that plants are willing to pay more to ensure stable utilization of their production capacities.

Expert Market Commentary

Grain and oilseed market analysts agree that today’s situation is driven by three key factors:

1. Processor Activity
Many plants are not operating at full capacity due to raw material shortages. They are forced to raise prices in order to “win over” seed lots from farmers and traders.

2. High Global Sunflower Oil Prices
Sunflower oil quotations on European markets remain at high levels, making processing more profitable and allowing plants to increase purchase prices.

3. Farmers Holding Back Sales
Some farmers expect further price growth and are in no hurry to sell remaining stocks, further limiting supply.

Sunflower Price Forecast in Ukraine

Market experts provide a cautiously optimistic outlook:

Short-term (2–4 weeks)
Further moderate price growth of 200–500 UAH per tonne is possible, provided processor demand remains stable.

Medium-term (1–3 months)
The market may stabilize if some farmers begin to actively sell their stocks and some plants reduce their purchasing pace due to lower margins.

Risks to Price Growth

• possible correction of global oil prices;
• weakening export demand;
• currency fluctuations.

What This Means for Farmers

The current situation is relatively favorable for producers:

• it is possible to sell in small batches, locking in gradual price increases;
• it is advisable to compare offers from several processors;
• logistics costs should be taken into account — closer plants often offer more competitive terms.

Conclusion

The sunflower market is entering a phase where the main driving force is strong processor demand amid limited supply. This provides short-term support for prices, although market stabilization is possible in the medium term.