Rising sunflower prices in Ukraine: why are they rising?
This season, there has been an increase in purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine – the main reason is the increase in prices for sunflower oil and meal, as well as uncertainty about the new harvest.
Зміст
🔹 Growth driver — oil and meal
- At Ukrainian ports, the cost of export sunflower oil rose by $10–20/t, to $1,080–1,120/t.
- Prices for sunflower meal from ports have also increased — by about $10–12/t, to $220–225/t.
This constrains processors and increases demand for raw materials to maintain margins, which directly affects purchasing prices.
🔹 Procurement market trends
- In February–March 2025, purchase prices for sunflower with an oil content of 52% rose by 500–1000 UAH/t, to 26,500–27,400 UAH/t.
- Farmers hope for further growth and are offering products for 27,000–28,000 UAH/t FCA.
🔹Limited offer
- Some enterprises have suspended operations due to high raw material costs and low processing volumes, which limits domestic supply.
- Farmers, seeing prospects for further growth, are holding stocks, which deepens the shortage in the market.
🔹 Risks of future fluctuations
- Prices may fall due to changes in global markets: lower prices for palm and soybean oil, as well as a strengthening hryvnia and cheaper oil.
- In addition, the harvest in South America may increase the supply of vegetable oil from the spring, creating additional pressure.
📌 Conclusion
- Short-term: Sunflower prices remain high, due to rising oil and meal prices, as well as supply constraints.
- Medium-term: Price growth is supported by restrained sales by farmers, but risks from global markets and currency fluctuations may lead to a correction.
- Things to watch: global palm and soybean oil prices, hryvnia exchange rate, development of new crop production.